An agent is at state I, and is considerng two non-deterministic
transformations T1 and T2.
The quality of the states is uncertain due to an inaccessible
environment.
- The possible states that T1 will lead to are S1 (probability 0.5),
S2 (probability 0.3), and S3 (probability 0.2).
The possible qualities of S1 are 10 (probability 0.5), and 20
(probability 0.5).
The possible qualities of S2 are 18 (probability 0.5), 12
(probability 0.3), and 6 (probability 0.2).
The possible qualities of S3 are 20 (probability 0.8), and 0
(probability 0.2).
- The possible states that T2 will lead to are S4 (probability 0.8),
and S5 (probability 0.2).
The possible qualities of S4 are 12 (probability 0.6), and 18
(probability 0.4).
The possible qualities of S5 are 10 (probability 0.7),
20 (probability 0.2), and 0 (probability 0.1).
Use utility to decide which transformation is preferred.
Answer
Q(S1) = 0.5 * 10 + 0.5 * 20 = 15
Q(S2) = 0.5 * 18 + 0.3 * 12 + 0.2 * 6 = 13.8
Q(S3) = 0.8 * 20 + 0.2 * 0 = 16
Utility(T1) = 0.5 * 15 + 0.3 * 13.8 + 0.2 * 16 = 14.84
Q(S4) = 0.6 * 12 + 0.4 * 18 = 14.4
Q(S5) = 0.7 * 10 + 0.2 * 20 + 0.1 * 0 = 11.0
Utility(T2) = 0.8 * 14.4 + 0.2 * 11.0 = 13.72
Prefer T1
(1%)